Crypto Express

Cwallet Crypto Market Weekly Report：Bitcoin Hits $111.8K: Seasoned Holders Trigger Market Correction

Cwallet

Jun 9, 2025 • 7 min read

Market Overview: ATH Followed by Pullback

Bitcoin hit a new ATH of $111.8k before retracing, as profit-taking by long-term holders began to weigh on momentum. With key support at $103.7k and $95.6k, and signs of older investors offloading, the bulls now face a critical test of their resolve.

Executive Summary: Key Technical Zones & Investor Behavior

BTC reached a new all-time high at $111.8k, but quickly retraced to $103.2k. The initial rally appears to be spot-driven, with major accumulation zones at $81–85k, $93–96k, and $102–104k now acting as potential support.
Zooming out with the CBD Heatmap, many historical accumulation zones flipped into distribution zones. Sellers from $25k–31k, $38k–44k, and $60k–73k ranges are now weighing on price action.
Cost basis quantiles and short-term holder bands place immediate support near $103.7k and $95.6k, with resistance at $114.8k. These levels are statistically significant markers of broader sentiment shifts.
Realized profits spiked to $1.47B/day, marking the fifth major profit-taking wave in this cycle. Selling was led by long-term holders, not short-term traders.
Cohorts holding for >12 months dominated the recent realized profits, reflecting mature capital rotation. This aligns with earlier observations from the CBD Heatmap, confirming that seasoned investors are shaping the current top formation phase.

Mapping the Rungs of the Rally: A Heatmap View of Price Action

Over the past two weeks, Bitcoin extended its rally to a new high of $111.8k, briefly surpassing the previous ATH set in January 2025. However, this move was followed by a correction to $103.2k, signalling a potential pause in bullish momentum.

To understand the anatomy of this rally, we turn to the Cumulative Volume Delta (CBD) Heatmap, a tool that tracks the net difference between aggressive buying and selling across price levels. Visually, it reveals zones of concentrated spot-driven accumulation or distribution, helping pinpoint where demand was strongest.

From the heatmap, it's evident this rally was largely spot-led and stair-stepped higher, with clear accumulation clusters at $81–85k, $93–96k, and $102–104k. These zones now potentially can serve as supply-dense regions that may act as short-term support, depending on broader market sentiment.

Notably, top buyers from Q1 2025, who held through the drawdown below $80k, are once again being tested as price churns sideways. This edition will examine the fading momentum behind recent demand, the forces draining market strength, and where potential support may emerge if weakness continues.

Old Hands Selling: Historical Accumulation Zones Flip to Resistance

To understand the forces driving Bitcoin’s recent move beyond $111k, we need to take a broader view of the market structure. By examining the CBD Heatmap from the June 2022 cycle bottom onward, a clear pattern of distribution by past accumulators begins to emerge.

As the price marched upward, the supply-dense zones that previously acted as bases of accumulation, often marked by sideways consolidation, have now turned into active selling zones. Visually, the heatmap reveals a gradual shift; areas that once supported the rally have flipped into sources of resistance, as earlier holders take the opportunity to offload.

The most notable selling pressure has come from cohorts who accumulated during key historical ranges: $25k–31k and $60k–73k. These groups, many of whom held through multiple volatility phases, are now contributing to the supply overhang that appears to be capping further upside, at least in the short term.

On-Chain Support Levels: Quantiles and Cost Basis Analysis

With long-term holders gradually applying sell pressure, the probability of a short-term correction continues to build, particularly in the absence of a strong upside catalyst to push Bitcoin decisively above $111.8k. In such phases, where bullish momentum stalls, on-chain pricing models become essential tools for identifying likely support levels during pullbacks.

One particularly effective framework is the Spent Supply Distribution (SSD) Quantiles. This metric analyzes the cost basis of coins being spent at a given time, dividing them into 100 percentiles. It provides a high-resolution view of where supply originally entered the market, enabling us to pinpoint zones with elevated turnover, likely driven by profit-taking or loss realization.

Here, we focus on three key quantiles:

🔴 0.95 (top 5% of spent supply)
🔵 0.85 (top 15%)
🟠 0.75 (top 25%)

Historical patterns over the past five years suggest that absolute euphoria tends to occur when price trades above the 0.95 quantile, while sideways bull phases often unfold between 0.85 and 0.95. On the other hand, sustained trading below the 0.75 quantile has typically marked bearish or risk-off periods.

At present, the 0.95 quantile sits at ~$103.7k, acting as the first on-chain support zone. Should selling pressure persist, the next level to watch is the 0.85 quantile at $95.6k, which may provide structural support, or, if breached, confirm a broader risk reset.

To add statistical context, we apply standard deviation bands around the Short-Term Holder (STH) Cost Basis to define key support and resistance zones. These bands help quantify the range of market consensus among short-term participants and can signal trend exhaustion or breakout thresholds.

Currently, the STH cost basis sits at $97.1k. The +1 standard deviation band, often associated with overbought or bullish breakout conditions, lies at $114.8k, while the -1 standard deviation band at $83.2k marks a level of elevated downside risk.

Profit-Taking Intensity: Long-Term Holders Lead the Wave

As Bitcoin retreats from its recent $111.8k high, much of the selling pressure appears to stem from intra-cycle seasoned holders, those who accumulated earlier in the rally and are now realizing substantial gains. In this phase, the profit realization regime is a key concept for evaluating the risk of demand exhaustion.

Using the 7-day SMA of daily profit realization, adjusted to exclude intra-entity flows, we see that realized profits peaked at $1.47B per day last week. This is a notable level, highlighting the intensity of recent capital rotation.

More importantly, this marks the fifth wave in this cycle where daily profit-taking has surpassed the $1B threshold. Such events often coincide with local market tops or slowdowns, especially if incoming demand cannot absorb the scale of realized gains.

Cyclical Profit Regimes: A More Mature Market Profile

To better understand the significance of the current elevated wave of profit realization, it helps to view it through a cyclical lens. Not all profit-taking events are created equal, and the dynamic nature of these regimes can reveal how market maturity and volatility shape investor behaviour over time.

One effective approach is to examine the 90-day SMA of net realized profit, normalized by market cap. This adjustment allows us to compare profit-taking intensity across cycles on an apples-to-apples basis.

From Nov 2015 to Apr 2018, profit realization peaked at ~0.4% of market cap.
In 2020–2022, the peak dropped to ~0.15%.
In the current cycle (Nov 2023–now), two peaks have formed around ~0.1%.

This shows that while profit-taking remains a major market driver, it has become more structured, less euphoric—a sign of growing market maturity.

Who’s Selling? Identifying the Profit-Taking Cohorts

Since the 2015–2018 cycle, long-term holders (LTHs) have gradually taken the lead in profit realization during market tops. Currently, the 30-day average of profits by LTHs is ~$1B/day versus $0.32B/day for short-term holders—a 3X difference.

Even when excluding 6–12 month holders (likely Q1 2025 buyers), those with holdings >12 months are now the dominant profit-takers, showing conviction-led capital rotation.

This aligns with previous CBD Heatmap observations, reinforcing that older investors are shaping the current distribution phase.

Testing the Market’s Strength

Bitcoin’s rally to $111.8k shows signs of exhaustion. Key accumulation zones have flipped into resistance, and long-term holders are exiting positions. With support at $103.7k and $95.6k and resistance at $114.8k, the market now enters a decisive phase.

Profit-taking has surged, led by >12-month holders, suggesting a shift from accumulation to distribution. Whether this is a temporary consolidation or the beginning of a broader top depends on how resilient demand proves to be in the coming weeks.

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