Cwallet Weekly Express: Resistance Zones, RWAs, and Regulatory Shifts

Executive Summary: Bitcoin Hits First Real Resistance

• Bitcoin price momentum is encountering resistance as it attempts to consolidate above key technical and on-chain levels, notably the 111DMA ($91.3k) and Short-Term Holder cost-basis ($93.2k).
• Structural resets across multiple facets of the Bitcoin economy suggest speculative excess has been flushed out during recent corrections.
• HODLing continues to dominate Long-Term Holder (LTH) behavior, with accumulation outweighing sell-side pressure.
• If the market continues higher, LTHs holding over 350% in unrealized gains could trigger sell-offs. Additionally, dense coin clusters around break-even zones may add to the overhead resistance.

I. Macro Forecast & Crypto Sector Overview

1. Global Macroeconomic Outlook

Volatility is rising in global markets due to U.S. tariff policies and economic concerns. U.S. stock indices are diverging: the S&P 500 dropped 0.85%, the Dow rose 0.32%, and the Nasdaq fell 1.12%. The IMF cut the U.S. 2025 growth forecast from 2.7% to 1.8% due to trade uncertainty. Meanwhile, the EU and Canada plan reciprocal tariffs, and Germany’s growth forecast has dropped to 0%. In the coming week, key data includes U.S. payrolls, Fed rate decisions, and tariff negotiations. Trade frictions could elevate commodity prices and hurt risk assets.

2. Crypto Market Performance & Policy Warnings

The crypto market remains resilient despite stock volatility. Bitcoin neared $95,000 on strong BTCETF inflows. Coinbase Institutional reported a slight dip in crypto market cap (excluding BTC) in Q1, driven by reduced VC funding and fading hype. New SEC regulations targeting stablecoins and DeFi platforms could affect market sentiment. If Bitcoin fails to break resistance, it may revisit support levels. Investors are advised to diversify, avoid overexposure to volatile tokens, and focus on long-term blockchain use cases.

II. Weekly Focus: Noteworthy Projects and Ecosystem Insights

1. MSafe: Key Liquidity Engine on Sui and Aptos

MSafe Wallet is the first multi-signature, non-custodial asset management solution built on the Move ecosystem (Sui & Aptos), raising over $5M in funding.

Key Benefits

• Security: Eliminates single point of failure; uses chain-level security audited by top firms.
• Decentralization: True decentralization prevents unauthorized transfers.
• Interoperability: Fully integrates with Move-based dApps.

Technical Architecture

• MSafe Backend: Core component using Move and Aptos native multi-sig.
• SDK: TypeScript SDK used by web apps, CLI, and third parties.
• Web Application: GUI for user interaction.
• CLI: Command-line deployment and smart contract tools.
• DApp SDK: Enables third-party integration.

III. Bitcoin Technicals: Key Pricing Levels & Investor Behavior

Momentum in the recovery of the Bitcoin price is facing its first wave of meaningful resistance, as price attempts to consolidate and break above the $93k to $95k region. This price zone is the range low of a multi-month consolidation phase that price traded between Nov 2024 and Feb 2025. An important shift appears to be underway, with the spot price breaking the prevailing downtrend, and establishing a new higher high price pattern.

In this edition, we will utilize a host of on-chain and technical metrics to gauge the strength of the markets momentum, and evaluate the durability of this upward move through the lens of spending dynamics, and investor sentiment.

To investigate the current state of market momentum, we can evaluate how the market is responding to a combination of key technical and on-chain indicators. When these two models align, their confluence provides a stronger, more reliable signal.

In this analysis, we focus on the 111DMA, which is a technical average that many Bitcoin analysts employ for assessing momentum. Alongside this, we will use the Short-Term Holder cost basis, which has historically served as a critical pricing level delineating bullish and bearish market regimes.

• 111DMA: $91.3k
• Short-Term Holder Cost-Basis: $93.2k

The price has recently surged above both of these pricing models, and is now attempting to consolidate within this zone. This highlights a noteworthy degree of strength behind this upwards swing. However, these are levels that must be broken and held for further price appreciation, as a rejection of this level would push the price back into bearish territory, and return many investors to a state of meaningful unrealized loss.

Market drawdowns are challenging times for investors, as financial pain typically increases as the depth and duration of the drawdown extends. We can assess the component of ‘time pain’ by evaluating the number of days (out of last 90-days) where the spot price has traded below both of these levels.

Through this measure, the prevailing drawdown has experienced a similar duration to those seen throughout the cycle. Furthermore, we can see that the duration component has not reached the extreme levels normally associated with prolonged bear market regimes, suggesting the recent drawdown may not be of bear market proportions just yet.

We can increase the granularity of this observation by evaluating the cost-basis of various sub-groups within the Short-Term Holder cohort. We consider these as a sort of fast-to-slow ribbon of cost basis levels, providing a form of momentum indicator:

The recent market surge has shifted investors who have held coins for longer than 1-month into a profitable position. This has led to a notable reduction in financial pressure and stress on these investors, and can be considered as an early indication for positive market momentum if sustained.

IV. Market Reset: Investor Metrics and Profit Realization Trends

In this section of the article, we will present a series of charts to profile a set of resets which have taken place across many areas of the Bitcoin economy. These ‘resets’ are typical of corrections, where much of the local froth dissipates from the market.

The MVRV Ratio measures the degree of unrealized profit or loss held by the average investor. This metric provides insight into the financial pressures the average investor is experiencing, and can help identify periods when they are more likely to take chips off of the table (realized a profit), or to capitulate under drawdown pressure (realize a loss).

By assessing the long-term mean of the MVRV Ratio, as well as ±1 standard deviation bands, we are able to clearly delineate between market regimes.

• Below -1 Standard Deviation: Deep bear market.
• Between -1 and long-term mean: Recovery phase.
• Above long-term mean: Early bull market.
• Above +1 Standard Deviation: Euphoric bull market.

During this downtrend, investor unrealized gains have fallen back to their long-term mean (MVRV of 1.74). A similar market structure can be seen during the previous consolidation phase in 2024, which peaked during the yen-carry-trade unwind on 5-Aug-2024.

The long-term mean of MVRV effectively acts as a support level for investor confidence, and a sustained move of MVRV back above this level would be a constructive observation.

Next, we look towards the percentage of the circulating supply which is held in a profitable position. This metric simply considers the status of a coin from a binary perspective of “in loss” or “in profit” based on its original cost basis. This differs from the MVRV Ratio, which considers the USD magnitude of unrealized profit or loss (i.e. distance between spot price and cost basis).

The circulating supply which is held in a profitable position remains elevated, trading at a value of 88%. The only underwater investors are those who purchased coins during the Dec-Feb period, centred around $95k and $100k.

Similar to the MVRV Ratio, the percent of supply in profit has also recorded a strong bounce off its long-term mean, which bolsters our assessment that a meaningful reset of investor expectations is taking place.

Moving into the spending domain (analysis of coins moved each day), we can see a similar story emerges.

During the downtrend, the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio approached its break-even value, suggesting the size of profit and loss taking events were balanced. This displays a neutral sentiment across investors. The price rally has driven this ratio higher and back into profit dominated territory. This suggests the onset of a meaningful recovery, where profit taking activity returns, and demand has thus far been able to absorb it.

The above observation is also supported by the SOPR metric, which gauges the relative magnitude of profit or loss taken across each spent coin. It can be thought of as the average profit multiple locked in by spent coins each day.

SOPR has also found strong support at its equilibrium value of 1.0, and has remained within a profit dominated regime. It is constructive to observe swift and short undercuts of the neutral level, which suggests that investors who bought near the local top are being flushed out, and others are buying and defending their cost-basis.

The Sell-Side Risk Ratio is a powerful tool which can assess the degree of equilibrium the market has reached. We can consider this metric under the following framework:

• High values indicate that investors spend coins at a large profit or loss relative to their cost basis. This condition indicates that the market likely needs to re-find equilibrium and usually follows a high volatility price move.
• Low values indicate that most coins are being spent relatively close to their break-even cost basis, suggesting a degree of equilibrium has been reached. This condition often signifies an exhaustion of ‘profit and loss’ within the current price range and usually describes a low volatility environment.

The Sell-Side Risk Ratio remains below its low value band, suggesting that most coins moved on-chain are transacting near their original acquisition price. Generally speaking, this indicates that the current price range is no longer an attractive area for investors to take profit or loss, and is typical of consolidation ranges, where a new range expansion is required to stimulate the next wave of capital flows.

V. HODLing Dynamics and Long-Term Holder Behavior

LTHs continue to accumulate. Over 254k BTC have crossed the 155-day threshold post-bottom, with many bought above $95k. This suggests LTHs view the current range as undervalued.

Historically, LTHs begin selling around +350% unrealized profit, which aligns with a ~$99.9k BTC price. Additional resistance is expected between $95k–$98k as many coins reach break-even.

Above $100k, there’s lighter resistance, suggesting that breaking past current barriers could lead to new all-time highs.

VI. Regulatory Developments: Global Crypto Policy Updates

• Russia: Launching state-backed crypto exchanges for elite investors.
• South Korea: Bank of Korea to actively participate in stablecoin regulation.
• Panama: City to accept crypto for municipal payments.
• Puerto Rico: New U.S. tax bill targets crypto tax avoidance.

VII. Trading Desk Insights

Spot Desk Overview

AUD/USD traded in a narrow range (0.6300–0.6400). In contrast, crypto saw a strong rally:

• BTC up 28.44% to $95,718.6
• ETH up to $1,854.66
• SOL up to $156.49

Memecoins rallied—$TRUMP gained 70% in a day. $DOGE, $BONK, $WIF, and $BRETT also surged. Solana’s momentum was supported by a $500M convertible note secured by SOL Strategies. OTC demand grew as clients sold into strength.

Derivatives Desk Notes

For Wholesale Investors Only

BTC and ETH basis remain within a 4–6% range. Volatility is elevated due to U.S. trade policy uncertainty.

Trade Idea: Sell Upside Volatility

Skew has shifted to favor calls. Selling upside may offer better risk-adjusted yield.

Example: BTC Yield Exit Note (June 27, $100k strike)

• If BTC > $100k: Receive $100k + 5.2% yield (USD)
• If BTC < $100k: Receive BTC + 5.2% yield (BTC)

VIII. News Highlights

• Helium x AT&T: Users can now access Helium's 93,500+ Wi-Fi hotspots.
• Initia: Launches mainnet and INIT token with 5% airdrop.
• Stride Swap (Cosmos): IBC DEX expands DeFi liquidity.
• Securitize x Mantle: $400M-backed crypto index fund includes BTC, ETH, SOL.
• DeFi Development Corp: Planning $1B investment in Solana tokens.
• Kakarot: ZK-based EVM implementation backed by Vitalik and StarkWare.
• Loopscale (Solana): Suffers $5.8M hack, pausing lending protocol.
• ZKsync: Hacker returns $4.5M after bounty negotiation.

Cwallet: Your Gateway to a New Era of Crypto Finance

Cwallet is not just a crypto wallet; it's a comprehensive Web2.5 financial platform. We seamlessly integrate security, privacy, and convenience, laying the foundation for a transformative financial landscape. With Cwallet, you can securely hold, send, receive, swap, tip, and earn from over 60 blockchains and 1000+ cryptocurrencies — all within one powerful platform.

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Furthermore, we provide additional toolkits, including HR bulk management system, mobile top-ups, gift cards, and more. With over 37 million users, Cwallet invites you to reimagine crypto. Stay cozy and step into the future of finance with us.

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